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Kavli Institute for Cosmology, Cambridge

 

Is our cosmos just a membrane on the edge of a far stranger reality?

Cosmology Papers - Wed, 19/03/2025 - 17:40

String theory may be our best attempt at a theory of everything, except that it can't describe an expanding universe like ours. Now a radical new twist on the idea could finally fix that – but it requires us to completely reimagine reality

ESA Previews Euclid Mission’s Deep View of ‘Dark Universe’

Cosmology Papers - Wed, 19/03/2025 - 16:45

6 min read

Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater) This image shows about 1.5% of Euclid’s Deep Field South, one of three regions of the sky that the telescope will observe for more than 40 weeks over the course of its prime mission, spotting faint and distant galaxies. One galaxy cluster near the center is located almost 6 billion light-years away from Earth. ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA; image processing by J.-C. Cuillandre, E. Bertin, G. An-selmi

With contributions from NASA, the mission is looking back into the universe’s history to understand how the universe’s expansion has changed. 

The Euclid mission — led by ESA (European Space Agency) with contributions from NASA — aims to find out why our universe is expanding at an accelerating rate. Astronomers use the term “dark energy” to refer to the unknown cause of this phenomenon, and Euclid will take images of billions of galaxies to learn more about it. A portion of the mission’s data was released to the public by ESA released on Wednesday, March 19.

This new data has been analyzed by mission scientists and provides a glimpse of Euclid’s progress. Deemed a “quick” data release, this batch focuses on select areas of the sky to demonstrate what can be expected in the larger data releases to come and to allow scientists to sharpen their data analysis tools in preparation.

The data release contains observations of Euclid’s three “deep fields,” or areas of the sky where the space telescope will eventually make its farthest observations of the universe. Featuring one week’s worth of viewing, the Euclid images contain 26 million galaxies, the most distant being over 10.5 billion light-years away. Launched in July 2023, the space telescope is expected to observe more than 1.5 billion galaxies during its six-year prime mission.

The entirety of the Euclid mission’s Deep Field South region is shown here. It is about 28.1 square degrees on the sky. Euclid will observe this and two other deep field regions for a total of about 40 weeks during its 6-year primary mission. ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA; image processing by J.-C. Cuillandre, E. Bertin, G. An-selmi

By the end of that prime mission, Euclid will have observed the deep fields for a total of about 40 weeks in order to gradually collect more light, revealing fainter and more distant galaxies. This approach is akin to keeping a camera shutter open to photograph a subject in low light.

The first deep field observations, taken by NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope in 1995, famously revealed the existence of many more galaxies in the universe than expected. Euclid’s ultimate goal is not to discover new galaxies but to use observations of them to investigate how dark energy’s influence has changed over the course of the universe’s history.

In particular, scientists want to know how much the rate of expansion has increased or slowed down over time. Whatever the answer, that information would provide new clues about the fundamental nature of this phenomenon. NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, set to launch by 2027, will also observe large sections of the sky in order to study dark energy, complementing Euclid’s observations.

The location of the Euclid deep fields are shown marked in yellow on this all-sky view from ESA’s Gaia and Planck missions. The bright horizontal band is the plane of our Milky Way galaxy. Euclid’s Deep Field South is at bottom left.ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA; ESA/Gaia/DPAC; ESA/Planck Collaboration Looking Back in Time

To study dark energy’s effect throughout cosmic history, astronomers will use Euclid to create detailed, 3D maps of all the stuff in the universe. With those maps, they want to measure how quickly dark energy is causing galaxies and big clumps of matter to move away from one another. They also want to measure that rate of expansion at different points in the past. This is possible because light from distant objects takes time to travel across space. When astronomers look at distant galaxies, they see what those objects looked like in the past.

For example, an object 100 light-years away looks the way it did 100 years ago. It’s like receiving a letter that took 100 years to be delivered and thus contains information from when it was written. By creating a map of objects at a range of distances, scientists can see how the universe has changed over time, including how dark energy’s influence may have varied.

But stars, galaxies, and all the “normal” matter that emits and reflects light is only about one-fifth of all the matter in the universe. The rest is called “dark matter” — a material that neither emits nor reflects light. To measure dark energy’s influence on the universe, astronomers need to include dark matter in their maps.  

Bending and Warping

Although dark matter is invisible, its influence can be measured through something called gravitational lensing. The mass of both normal and dark matter creates curves in space, and light traveling toward Earth bends or warps as it encounters those curves. In fact, the light from a distant galaxy can bend so much that it forms an arc, a full circle (called an Einstein ring), or even multiple images of the same galaxy, almost as though the light has passed through a glass lens.

In most cases, gravitational lensing warps the apparent shape of a galaxy so subtly that researchers need special tools and computer software to see it. Spotting those subtle changes across billions of galaxies enables scientists to do two things: create a detailed map of the presence of dark matter and observe how dark energy influenced it over cosmic history.

It is only with a very large sample of galaxies that researchers can be confident they are seeing the effects of dark matter. The newly released Euclid data covers 63 square degrees of the sky, an area equivalent to an array of 300 full Moons. To date, Euclid has observed about 2,000 square degrees, which is approximately 14% of its total survey area of 14,000 square degrees. By the end of its mission, Euclid will have observed a third of the entire sky.

The dataset released this month is described in several preprint papers available today. The mission’s first cosmology data will be released in October 2026. Data accumulated over additional, multiple passes of the deep field locations will also be included in the 2026 release.

More About Euclid

Euclid is a European mission, built and operated by ESA, with contributions from NASA. The Euclid Consortium — consisting of more than 2,000 scientists from 300 institutes in 15 European countries, the United States, Canada, and Japan — is responsible for providing the scientific instruments and scientific data analysis. ESA selected Thales Alenia Space as prime contractor for the construction of the satellite and its service module, with Airbus Defence and Space chosen to develop the payload module, including the telescope. Euclid is a medium-class mission in ESA’s Cosmic Vision Programme.

Three NASA-supported science teams contribute to the Euclid mission. In addition to designing and fabricating the sensor-chip electronics for Euclid’s Near Infrared Spectrometer and Photometer (NISP) instrument, JPL led the procurement and delivery of the NISP detectors as well. Those detectors, along with the sensor chip electronics, were tested at NASA’s Detector Characterization Lab at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The Euclid NASA Science Center at IPAC (ENSCI), at Caltech in Pasadena, California, supports U.S.-based science investigations, and science data is archived at the NASA / IPAC Infrared Science Archive (IRSA). JPL is a division of Caltech.

For more information about Euclid go to:

science.nasa.gov/mission/euclid/

News Media Contact

ESA Media Relations
media@esa.int

Calla Cofield
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
626-808-2469
calla.e.cofield@jpl.nasa.gov

2025-039

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Best ever map of early universe is double-edged sword for cosmologists

Cosmology Papers - Wed, 19/03/2025 - 16:44

The finest ever map of the cosmic microwave background - the faint evidence of the universe's early form - has yielded precise confirmation of the age of the cosmos and its rate of expansion. But for some scientists, the findings offer a frustrating lack of clues to major cosmological mysteries

Tentative rotation in a galaxy at z$\sim$14 with ALMA

KICC papers - Tue, 18/03/2025 - 09:57
arXiv:2503.10751v2 Announce Type: new Abstract: We re-analysed ALMA observations of the [OIII]$\lambda$88$\mu$m emission line in JADES-GS-z14.0, so far the most distant spectroscopically confirmed galaxy at z=14.18. Our analysis shows a tentative detection of a velocity gradient of [OIII]$\lambda$88$\mu$m using three independent tests: 1) construction of moment maps; 2) extraction of integrated spectra from a grid of apertures; and 3) spectro-astrometry in both the image and uv planes. We performed kinematical fitting using the KinMS code and estimated a dynamical mass of log$_{10}$(M$_{\rm dyn}$/$\rm M_\odot$)= 9.4$^{+0.8}_{-0.4}$, with the bulk of the uncertainties due to the degeneracy between dynamical mass and inclination. We measure an upper limit on the velocity dispersion ($\sigma_{v}$) of $<40~$ km/s~which results in an estimate of V$_{\rm rot}/\sigma>$ 2.5. This result, if confirmed with higher-resolution observations, would imply that kinematically cold discs are already in place at $z\sim14$. Comparison with mock observations from the SERRA cosmological simulations confirms that even low-resolution observations are capable of detecting a velocity gradient in $z>10$ galaxies as compact as JADES-GS-z14.0. This work shows that deeper ALMA or JWST/NIRSpec IFS observations with high spatial resolution will be able to estimate an accurate dynamical mass for JADES-GS-z14.0, providing an upper limit to the stellar mass of this over-luminous galaxy.

Giant Milky Way-like galaxy formed unusually soon after the big bang

Cosmology Papers - Tue, 18/03/2025 - 09:55

The Big Wheel, discovered using the James Webb Space Telescope, formed just 2 billion years after the big bang - surprisingly early for a spiral galaxy of a similar size to our Milky Way

LHC finds intriguing new clues about our universe's antimatter mystery

Cosmology Papers - Tue, 18/03/2025 - 09:55

Analysing the aftermath of particle collisions has revealed two new instances of “CP violation”, a process that explains why our universe contains more matter than antimatter

Tests for model misspecification in simulation-based inference: from local distortions to global model checks

KICC papers - Mon, 17/03/2025 - 11:54
arXiv:2412.15100v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Model misspecification analysis strategies, such as anomaly detection, model validation, and model comparison are a key component of scientific model development. Over the last few years, there has been a rapid rise in the use of simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques for Bayesian parameter estimation, applied to increasingly complex forward models. To move towards fully simulation-based analysis pipelines, however, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive simulation-based framework for model misspecification analysis. In this work, we provide a solid and flexible foundation for a wide range of model discrepancy analysis tasks, using distortion-driven model misspecification tests. From a theoretical perspective, we introduce the statistical framework built around performing many hypothesis tests for distortions of the simulation model. We also make explicit analytic connections to classical techniques: anomaly detection, model validation, and goodness-of-fit residual analysis. Furthermore, we introduce an efficient self-calibrating training algorithm that is useful for practitioners. We demonstrate the performance of the framework in multiple scenarios, making the connection to classical results where they are valid. Finally, we show how to conduct such a distortion-driven model misspecification test for real gravitational wave data, specifically on the event GW150914.

Tentative rotation in a galaxy at z$\sim$14 with ALMA

KICC papers - Mon, 17/03/2025 - 11:25
arXiv:2503.10751v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We re-analysed ALMA observations of the [OIII]$\lambda$88$\mu$m emission line in JADES-GS-z14.0, so far the most distant spectroscopically confirmed galaxy at z=14.18. Our analysis shows a tentative detection of a velocity gradient of [OIII]$\lambda$88$\mu$m using three independent tests: 1) construction of moment maps; 2) extraction of integrated spectra from a grid of apertures; and 3) spectro-astrometry in both the image and uv planes. We performed kinematical fitting using the KinMS code and estimated a dynamical mass of log$_{10}$(M$_{\rm dyn}$/$\rm M_\odot$)= 9.4$^{+0.8}_{-0.4}$, with the bulk of the uncertainties due to the degeneracy between dynamical mass and inclination. We measure an upper limit on the velocity dispersion ($\sigma_{v}$) of $<40~$ km/s~which results in an estimate of V$_{\rm rot}/\sigma>$ 2.5. This result, if confirmed with higher-resolution observations, would imply that kinematically cold discs are already in place at $z\sim14$. Comparison with mock observations from the SERRA cosmological simulations confirms that even low-resolution observations are capable of detecting a velocity gradient in $z>10$ galaxies as compact as JADES-GS-z14.0. This work shows that deeper ALMA or JWST/NIRSpec IFS observations with high spatial resolution will be able to estimate an accurate dynamical mass for JADES-GS-z14.0, providing an upper limit to the stellar mass of this over-luminous galaxy.

Observed unequal-time power spectrum

KICC papers - Fri, 14/03/2025 - 10:10
arXiv:2503.09759v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The next generation of galaxy surveys will provide highly precise measurements of galaxy clustering, therefore requiring a corresponding accuracy. Current approaches, which rely on approximations and idealized assumptions, may fall short in capturing the level of detail required for high-precision observations. In order to increase the modeling accuracy, recently, unequal-time contributions to the galaxy power spectrum have been introduced in order to include the effects of radial correlations. We present a generalization of the formalism for the observed unequal-time power spectrum, that includes Doppler and local general relativistic corrections, plus local primordial non-Gaussianity. We find that unequal time corrections can potentially mimic an effective $f_{\mathrm{NL}}$ of order unity. We provide a first assessment of the significance of unequal-time corrections for future galaxy clustering experiments, estimating a Signal-to-Noise-Ratio of $\sim3$ for Stage IV-like surveys.

Multiprobe Cosmology from the Abundance of SPT Clusters and DES Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing

KICC papers - Fri, 14/03/2025 - 10:06
arXiv:2412.07765v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Cosmic shear, galaxy clustering, and the abundance of massive halos each probe the large-scale structure of the Universe in complementary ways. We present cosmological constraints from the joint analysis of the three probes, building on the latest analyses of the lensing-informed abundance of clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and of the auto- and cross-correlation of galaxy position and weak lensing measurements (3$\times$2pt) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We consider the cosmological correlation between the different tracers and we account for the systematic uncertainties that are shared between the large-scale lensing correlation functions and the small-scale lensing-based cluster mass calibration. Marginalized over the remaining $\Lambda$ cold dark matter ($\Lambda$CDM) parameters (including the sum of neutrino masses) and 52 astrophysical modeling parameters, we measure $\Omega_\mathrm{m}=0.300\pm0.017$ and $\sigma_8=0.797\pm0.026$. Compared to constraints from Planck primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, our constraints are only 15% wider with a probability to exceed of 0.22 ($1.2\sigma$) for the two-parameter difference. We further obtain $S_8\equiv\sigma_8(\Omega_\mathrm{m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.796\pm0.013$ which is lower than the Planck measurement at the $1.6\sigma$ level. The combined SPT cluster, DES 3$\times$2pt, and Planck datasets mildly prefer a nonzero positive neutrino mass, with a 95% upper limit $\sum m_\nu<0.25~\mathrm{eV}$ on the sum of neutrino masses. Assuming a $w$CDM model, we constrain the dark energy equation of state parameter $w=-1.15^{+0.23}_{-0.17}$ and when combining with Planck primary CMB anisotropies, we recover $w=-1.20^{+0.15}_{-0.09}$, a $1.7\sigma$ difference with a cosmological constant. The precision of our results highlights the benefits of multiwavelength multiprobe cosmology.

DESI 2024 V: Full-Shape Galaxy Clustering from Galaxies and Quasars

KICC papers - Thu, 13/03/2025 - 10:12
arXiv:2411.12021v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range $0.1

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Nonparametric reconstructions of dynamical dark energy via flexknots

KICC papers - Wed, 12/03/2025 - 11:30
arXiv:2503.08658v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent cosmological surveys have provided unprecedented datasets that can be used to reconstruct the history of the dark energy equation of state. In this work, a free-form "flexknot'' parameterisation is employed to represent $w(a)$ as a linear spline between free-moving nodes, the number of which may vary. By combining DESI Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurements with Pantheon+ or DES5Y supernovae, the functional posteriors of $w(a)$ reveal an unexpected W-shaped structure. While the Bayesian evidence may still favour $\Lambda$CDM, the robustness of these results suggests the structure is indeed present in the data. The tension $R$-statistic and suspiciousness have been marginalised over models, and demonstrate that while the reconstructions from DESI and Pantheon+ agree, DESI and DES5Y do not. We conclude that, while there is no smoking gun for dynamical dark energy, the structure unearthed in this work is generally too complex to be captured by the restrictive $w$CDM or CPL parameterisations.

The Spectroscopic Stage-5 Experiment

KICC papers - Wed, 12/03/2025 - 11:24
arXiv:2503.07923v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Observational cosmology has provided an extraordinary perspective on our universe and our place within it. However, as our understanding of the universe has increased, some glaring holes in our knowledge have become apparent: What physics is responsible for the super-luminal expansion of the universe at early times? What drives the accelerating expansion of the universe at late times? What is the nature of the mysterious dark matter that makes up 83\% of the matter in the universe? These fundamental physical questions are intimately linked to fundamental astronomical questions about how galaxies and stars have formed and evolved within our universe. Cosmic surveys are the primary means by which we study the origin, structure, composition, and evolution of our universe. In particular, many of these questions require the spectroscopy of large numbers of astronomical sources. Spectroscopy provides key data on the physics of primordial inflation and late-time cosmic acceleration, the astrophysics of galaxy evolution, and the nature and effects of dark matter in galaxies. For example, observable features in the three-dimensional structure of the universe are key predictions of cosmological models, and their time evolution provides unique constraints on the nature of dark energy, inflation and the gravitational effects of dark matter. The next major advance in our understanding of the universe requires spectroscopic measurements of hundreds of millions of astronomical objects.

The THESAN-ZOOM project: central starbursts and inside-out quenching govern galaxy sizes in the early Universe

KICC papers - Wed, 12/03/2025 - 11:19
arXiv:2503.04894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We explore the evolution of galaxy sizes at high redshift ($3 < z < 13$) using the high-resolution THESAN-ZOOM radiation-hydrodynamics simulations, focusing on the mass range of $10^6\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot} < \mathrm{M}_{\ast} < 10^{10}\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. Our analysis reveals that galaxy size growth is tightly coupled to bursty star formation. Galaxies above the star-forming main sequence experience rapid central compaction during starbursts, followed by inside-out quenching and spatially extended star formation that leads to expansion, causing oscillatory behavior around the size-mass relation. Notably, we find a positive intrinsic size-mass relation at high redshift, consistent with observations but in tension with large-volume simulations. We attribute this discrepancy to the bursty star formation captured by our multi-phase interstellar medium framework, but missing from simulations using the effective equation-of-state approach with hydrodynamically decoupled feedback. We also find that the normalization of the size-mass relation follows a double power law as a function of redshift, with a break at $z\approx6$, because the majority of galaxies at $z > 6$ show rising star-formation histories, and therefore are in a compaction phase. We demonstrate that H$\alpha$ emission is systematically extended relative to the UV continuum by a median factor of 1.7, consistent with recent JWST studies. However, in contrast to previous interpretations that link extended H$\alpha$ sizes to inside-out growth, we find that Lyman-continuum (LyC) emission is spatially disconnected from H$\alpha$. Instead, a simple Str\"{o}mgren sphere argument reproduces observed trends, suggesting that extreme LyC production during central starbursts is the primary driver of extended nebular emission.

Interacting Dark Sector (ETHOS $n=0$): Cosmological Constraints from SPT Cluster Abundance with DES and HST Weak Lensing Data

KICC papers - Wed, 12/03/2025 - 11:18
arXiv:2411.19911v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We use galaxy cluster abundance measurements from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) enhanced by Multi-Component Matched Filter (MCMF) confirmation and complemented with mass information obtained using weak-lensing data from Dark Energy Survey Year~3 (DES Y3) and targeted Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations for probing deviations from the cold dark matter paradigm. Concretely, we consider a class of dark sector models featuring interactions between dark matter (DM) and a dark radiation (DR) component within the framework of the Effective Theory of Structure Formation (ETHOS). We focus on scenarios that lead to power suppression over a wide range of scales, and thus can be tested with data sensitive to large scales, as realized for example for DM$-$DR interactions following from an unbroken non-Abelian $SU(N)$ gauge theory (interaction rate with power-law index $n=0$ within the ETHOS parameterization). Cluster abundance measurements are mostly sensitive to the amount of DR interacting with DM, parameterized by the ratio of DR temperature to the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature, $\xi_{\rm DR}=T_{\rm DR}/T_{\rm CMB}$. We find an upper limit $\xi_{\rm DR}<17\%$ at $95\%$ credibility. When the cluster data are combined with Planck 2018 CMB data along with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements we find $\xi_{\rm DR}<10\%$, corresponding to a limit on the abundance of interacting DR that is around three times tighter than that from CMB+BAO data alone. We also discuss the complementarity of weak lensing informed cluster abundance studies with probes sensitive to smaller scales, explore the impact on our analysis of massive neutrinos, and comment on a slight preference for the presence of a non-zero interacting DR abundance, which enables a physical solution to the $S_8$ tension.

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Improved Halo Model Calibrations for Mixed Dark Matter Models of Ultralight Axions

KICC papers - Tue, 11/03/2025 - 11:20
arXiv:2409.11469v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the implications of relaxing the requirement for ultralight axions to account for all dark matter in the Universe by examining mixed dark matter (MDM) cosmologies with axion fractions $f \leq 0.3$ within the fuzzy dark matter (FDM) window $10^{-25}$ eV $\lesssim m \lesssim 10^{-23}$ eV. Our simulations, using a new MDM gravity solver implemented in AxiREPO, capture wave dynamics across various scales with high accuracy down to redshifts $z\approx 1$. We identify halos with Rockstar using the CDM component and find good agreement of inferred halo mass functions (HMFs) and concentration-mass relations with theoretical models across redshifts $z=1-10$. This justifies our halo finder approach a posteriori as well as the assumptions underlying the MDM halo model AxionHMcode. Using the inferred axion halo mass-cold halo mass relation $M_{\text{a}}(M_{\text{c}})$ and calibrating a generalised smoothing parameter $\alpha$ to our MDM simulations, we present a new version of AxionHMcode. The code exhibits excellent agreement with simulations on scales $k< 20 \ h$ cMpc$^{-1}$ at redshifts $z=1-3.5$ for $f\leq 0.1$ around the fiducial axion mass $m = 10^{-24.5}$ eV $ = 3.16\times 10^{-25}$ eV, with maximum deviations remaining below 10%. For axion fractions $f\leq 0.3$, the model maintains accuracy with deviations under 20% at redshifts $z\approx 1$ and scales $k< 10 \ h$ cMpc$^{-1}$, though deviations can reach up to 30% for higher redshifts when $f=0.3$. Reducing the run-time for a single evaluation of AxionHMcode to below $1$ minute, these results highlight the potential of AxionHMcode to provide a robust framework for parameter sampling across MDM cosmologies in Bayesian constraint and forecast analyses.

GA-NIFS: High number of dual active galactic nuclei at z~3

KICC papers - Tue, 11/03/2025 - 09:48
arXiv:2310.03067v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Merger events can trigger gas accretion onto supermassive black holes (SMBHs) located at the centre of galaxies, and form close pairs of AGN. The fraction of AGN in pairs offers critical insights into the dynamics of galaxy interactions, SMBH growth, and their co-evolution with host galaxies. However, the identification of dual AGN is difficult, as it requires high-quality spatial and spectral data; hence, only very few pairs have been found in the distant Universe so far. This study aims to provide a first observational estimate of the fraction of dual AGN at 2