KICC papers

Stellar streams are excellent probes of the underlying gravitational potential in which they evolve. In this work, we fit dynamical models to five streams in the Southern Galactic hemisphere, combining observations from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (${S}^5$), Gaia EDR3, and the Dark Energy Survey (DES), to measure the mass of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). With an ensemble of streams, we find a mass of the LMC ranging from 14 to $19 \times 10^{10}\ \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$, probed over a range of closest approach times and distances. With the most constraining stream (Orphan-Chenab), we measure an LMC mass of $18.8^{+ 3.5}_{- 4.0} \times 10^{10}\ \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$, probed at a closest approach time of 310 Myr and a closest approach distance of 25.4 kpc. This mass is compatible with previous measurements, showing that a consistent picture is emerging of the LMC's influence on structures in the Milky Way. Using this sample of streams, we find that the LMC's effect depends on the relative orientation of the stream and LMC at their point of closest approach. To better understand this, we present a simple model based on the impulse approximation and we show that the LMC's effect depends both on the magnitude of the velocity kick imparted to the stream and the direction of this kick.

We present the discovery of a candidate ultra-faint Milky Way satellite, Eridanus IV (DELVE J0505$-$0931), detected in photometric data from the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE). Eridanus IV is a faint ($M_V = -4.7 \pm 0.2$), extended ($r_{1/2} = 75^{+16}_{-13}$ pc), and elliptical ($\epsilon = 0.54 \pm 0.1$) system at a heliocentric distance of $76.7^{+4.0}_{-6.1}$ kpc, with a stellar population that is well-described by an old, metal-poor isochrone (age of $\tau \sim 13.0$ Gyr and metallicity of ${\rm [Fe/H] \lesssim -2.1}$ dex). These properties are consistent with the known population of ultra-faint Milky Way satellite galaxies. Eridanus IV is also prominently detected using proper motion measurements from Gaia Early Data Release 3, with a systemic proper motion of $(\mu_{\alpha} \cos \delta, \mu_{\delta}) = (+0.25 \pm 0.06, -0.10 \pm 0.05)$ mas yr$^{-1}$ measured from its horizontal branch and red giant branch member stars. We find that the spatial distribution of likely member stars hints at the possibility that the system is undergoing tidal disruption.

We present in this paper one of the largest galaxy morphological classification catalogues to date, including over 20 million of galaxies, using the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). Monochromatic $i$-band DES images with linear, logarithmic, and gradient scales, matched with debiased visual classifications from the Galaxy Zoo 1 (GZ1) catalogue, are used to train our CNN models. With a training set including bright galaxies ($16\le{i}<18$) at low redshift ($z<0.25$), we furthermore investigate the limit of the accuracy of our predictions applied to galaxies at fainter magnitude and at higher redshifts. Our final catalogue covers magnitudes $16\le{i}<21$, and redshifts $z<1.0$, and provides predicted probabilities to two galaxy types -- Ellipticals and Spirals (disk galaxies). Our CNN classifications reveal an accuracy of over 99\% for bright galaxies when comparing with the GZ1 classifications ($i<18$). For fainter galaxies, the visual classification carried out by three of the co-authors shows that the CNN classifier correctly categorises disky galaxies with rounder and blurred features, which humans often incorrectly visually classify as Ellipticals. As a part of the validation, we carry out one of the largest examination of non-parametric methods, including $\sim$100,000 galaxies with the same coverage of magnitude and redshift as the training set from our catalogue. We find that the Gini coefficient is the best single parameter discriminator between Ellipticals and Spirals for this data set.

Considerable observational efforts are being dedicated to measuring the sky-averaged (global) 21-cm signal of neutral hydrogen from Cosmic Dawn and the Epoch of Reionization. Deriving observational constraints on the astrophysics of this era requires modelling tools that can quickly and accurately generate theoretical signals across the wide astrophysical parameter space. For this purpose artificial neural networks were used to create the only two existing global signal emulators 21cmGEM and globalemu. In this paper we introduce 21cmVAE, a global signal emulator based on advanced machine learning methods such as variational autoencoder (VAE) and trained with the same dataset of ~ 30,000 global signals as the other two emulators. The VAE allows us to explore a low-dimensional representation of the dataset and establish the most important astrophysical processes that drive the global 21-cm signal at different epochs. 21cmVAE has a relative rms error of only 0.41\% -- equivalently 0.66 mK -- on average, which is a significant improvement compared to the existing emulators, and a run time of 0.04 seconds per parameter set. The emulator, the code, and the processed datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/christianhbye/21cmVAE and through this http URL

The Cosmic Web contains filamentary structure on a wide range of scales. On the largest scales, superclustering aligns multiple galaxy clusters along inter-cluster bridges, visible through their thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal in the Cosmic Microwave Background. We demonstrate a new, flexible method to analyze the gas signal from multi-scale extended structures. We use a Compton-$y$ map from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) stacked on redMaPPer cluster positions from the optical Dark Energy Survey (DES). Cutout images from the $y$ map are oriented with large-scale structure information from DES galaxy data such that the extended superclustering signal is aligned before being overlaid. We find evidence for a quadrupole moment of the extended gas signal at the 3.5$\sigma$ level, demonstrating that the large-scale thermal energy surrounding galaxy clusters is anisotropically distributed. We compare our ACT$\times$DES results with Buzzard simulations, finding broad agreement. Using simulations, we highlight the promise of this novel technique for constraining the evolution of anisotropic, non-Gaussian structure using future combinations of microwave and optical surveys.

In this paper we present and validate the galaxy sample used for the analysis of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation signal (BAO) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data. The definition is based on a colour and redshift-dependent magnitude cut optimized to select galaxies at redshifts higher than 0.5, while ensuring a high quality photometric redshift determination. The sample covers $\approx 4100$ square degrees to a depth of $i = 22.3 \ (AB)$ at $10\sigma$. It contains 7,031,993 galaxies in the redshift range from $z$= 0.6 to 1.1, with a mean effective redshift of 0.835. Photometric redshifts are estimated with the machine learning algorithm DNF, and are validated using the VIPERS PDR2 sample. We find a mean redshift bias of $z_{\mathrm{bias}} \approx 0.01$ and a mean uncertainty, in units of $1+z$, of $\sigma_{68} \approx 0.03$. We evaluate the galaxy population of the sample, showing it is mostly built upon Elliptical to Sbc types. Furthermore, we find a low level of stellar contamination of $\lesssim 4\%$. We present the method used to mitigate the effect of spurious clustering coming from observing conditions and other large-scale systematics. We apply it to the DES Y3 BAO sample and calculate sample weights that are used to get a robust estimate of the galaxy clustering signal. This paper is one of a series dedicated to the analysis of the BAO signal in the DES Y3 data. In the companion papers, Ferrero et al. (2021) and DES Collaboration (2021), we present the galaxy mock catalogues used to calibrate the analysis and the angular diameter distance constraints obtained through the fitting to the BAO scale, respectively. The galaxy sample, masks and additional material will be released in the public DES data repository upon acceptance.

We present angular diameter measurements obtained by measuring the position of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) in an optimised sample of galaxies from the first three years of Dark Energy Survey data (DES Y3). The sample consists of 7 million galaxies distributed over a footprint of 4100 deg$^2$ with $0.6 < z_{\rm photo} < 1.1$ and a typical redshift uncertainty of $0.03(1+z)$. The sample selection is the same as in the BAO measurement with the first year of DES data, but the analysis presented here uses three times the area, extends to higher redshift and makes a number of improvements, including a fully analytical BAO template, the use of covariances from both theory and simulations, and an extensive pre-unblinding protocol. We used two different statistics: angular correlation function and power spectrum, and validate our pipeline with an ensemble of over 1500 realistic simulations. Both statistics yield compatible results. We combine the likelihoods derived from angular correlations and spherical harmonics to constrain the ratio of comoving angular diameter distance $D_M$ at the effective redshift of our sample to the sound horizon scale at the drag epoch. We obtain $D_M(z_{\rm eff}=0.835)/r_{\rm d} = 18.92 \pm 0.51$, which is consistent with, but smaller than, the Planck prediction assuming flat \lcdm, at the level of $2.3 \sigma$. The analysis was performed blind and is robust to changes in a number of analysis choices. It represents the most precise BAO distance measurement from imaging data to date, and is competitive with the latest transverse ones from spectroscopic samples at $z>0.75$. When combined with DES 3x2pt + SNIa, they lead to improvements in $H_0$ and $\Omega_m$ constraints by $\sim 20\%$

We investigate the attenuation law in $z\sim 6$ quasars by combining cosmological zoom-in hydrodynamical simulations of quasar host galaxies, with multi-frequency radiative transfer calculations. We consider several dust models differing in terms of grain size distributions, dust mass and chemical composition, and compare the resulting synthetic Spectral Energy Distributions (SEDs) with data from bright, early quasars. We show that only dust models with grain size distributions in which small grains ($a < 0.1~\mu$m, corresponding to $\approx 60\%$ of the total dust mass) are selectively removed from the dusty medium provide a good fit to the data. Removal can occur if small grains are efficiently destroyed in quasar environments and/or early dust production preferentially results in large grains. Attenuation curves for these models are close to flat, and consistent with recent data; they correspond to an effective dust-to-metal ratio $f_d \simeq 0.38$, i.e. close to the Milky Way value.

The Large-aperture Experiment to detect the Dark Age (LEDA) was designed to measure the 21-cm signal from neutral hydrogen at Cosmic Dawn, $z \approx $15-30. Using observations made with the $\approx $ 200 m diameter core of the Owens Valley Long Wavelength Array (OVRO-LWA), we present a 2-D cylindrical spatial power spectrum for data at 43.1-53.5 MHz ($z_{\rm median}\approx 28$) incoherently integrated for 4 hours, and an analysis of the array sensitivity. Power from foregrounds is localized to a "wedge" within $k_\perp, k_\parallel$ space. After calibration of visibilities using 5 bright compact sources including VirA, we measure $\Delta^2(k) \approx 2 \times 10^{12}\ \mathrm{mK}^2$ outside the foreground wedge, where an uncontaminated cosmological signal would lie, in principle. The measured $\Delta^2(k)$ is an upper limit that reflects a combination of thermal instrumental and sky noise, and unmodelled systematics that scatter power from the wedge, as will be discussed. By differencing calibrated visibilities for close pairs of frequency channels, we suppress foreground sky structure and systematics, extract thermal noise, and use a mix of coherent and incoherent integration to simulate a noise-dominated power spectrum for a 3000 h observation and $z = $16-37. For suitable calibration quality, the resulting noise level, $\Delta^2(k) \approx 100$ mK$^2$ (k = 0.3 Mpc$^{-1}$), would be sufficient to detect peaks in the 21-cm spatial power spectrum due to early Ly-$\alpha$ and X-ray sources, as predicted for a range of theoretical model parameters.

Global 21cm experiments aim to measure the sky averaged HI absorption signal from cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionisation. However, antenna chromaticity coupling to bright foregrounds can introduce distortions into the observational data of such experiments. We demonstrate a method for guiding the antenna design of a global experiment through data analysis simulations. This is done by performing simulated observations for a range of inserted 21cm signals, then attempting to identify the signals with a data analysis pipeline. We demonstrate this method on five antennae that were considered as potential designs for the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH); a conical log spiral antenna, an inverted conical sinuous antenna and polygonal-, square- and elliptical-bladed dipoles. We find that the log spiral performs significantly better than the other antennae tested, able to correctly and confidently identify every inserted 21cm signal. In second place is the polygonal dipole antenna, which was only unable to detect signals with both very low amplitudes of 0.05K and low centre frequency of 80MHz. The conical sinuous antenna was found to perform least accurately, only able to detect the highest amplitude 21cm signals, and even then with biases. We also demonstrate that, due to the non-trivial nature of chromatic distortion and the processes of correcting for it, these are not the results that could have been expected superficially from the extent of chromatic variation in each antenna.

The Lyman-alpha forest is the large-scale structure probe for which we appear to have modeling control to the highest wavenumbers, which makes it of great interest for constraining the warmness/fuzziness of the dark matter and the timing of reionization processes. However, the standard statistic, the Lyman-alpha forest power spectrum, is unable to strongly constrain the IGM temperature-density relation, and this inability further limits how well other high wavenumber-sensitive parameters can be constrained. With the aim of breaking these degeneracies, we measure the power spectrum of the Lyman-beta forest and its cross correlation with the coeveal Lyman-alpha forest using the one hundred spectra of z=3.5-4.5 quasars in the VLT/X-Shooter XQ-100 Legacy Survey, motivated by the Lyman-beta transition's smaller absorption cross section that makes it sensitive to somewhat higher densities relative to the Lyman-alpha transition. Our inferences from this measurement for the IGM temperature-density relation appear to latch consistently onto the recent tight lower-redshift Lyman-alpha forest constraints of arXiv:2009.00016v1 [astro-ph.CO]. The z=3.4-4.7 trends we find using the Lyman-alpha--Lyman-beta cross correlation show a flattening of the slope of the temperature-density relation with decreasing redshift. This is the trend anticipated from ongoing HeII reionization and there being sufficient time to reach the asymptotic temperature-density slope after hydrogen reionization completes. Furthermore, our measurements provide a consistency check on IGM models that explain the Lyman-alpha forest, with the cross correlation being immune to systematics that are uncorrelated between the two forests, such as metal line contamination.

We assess the status of a wide class of WIMP dark matter (DM) models in light of the latest experimental results using the global fitting framework $\textsf{GAMBIT}$. We perform a global analysis of effective field theory (EFT) operators describing the interactions between a gauge-singlet Dirac fermion and the Standard Model quarks, the gluons and the photon. In this bottom-up approach, we simultaneously vary the coefficients of 14 such operators up to dimension 7, along with the DM mass, the scale of new physics and 8 nuisance parameters that reflect uncertainties in the local DM halo, nuclear form factors and the top quark mass. We include the renormalization group evolution of all operator coefficients and perform an automated matching to the non-relativistic EFT relevant for DM scattering. Our up-to-date likelihood functions include all relevant experimental constraints based on the latest data from $\mathit{Planck}$, direct and indirect detection experiments, and the LHC, in particular a very recent ATLAS monojet search based on the full run 2 dataset. For light DM ($\lesssim 100$ GeV), we find that it is impossible to satisfy all constraints simultaneously unless the particle under consideration constitutes only a DM sub-component and the scale of the new physics is so low that the EFT breaks down for the calculation of LHC constraints. At intermediate values of the new physics scale ($\approx 1$ TeV), we find that our results are significantly influenced by several small excesses in the LHC data such that the best-fit parameter regions depend on the precise prescription that we adopt to ensure EFT validity. In addition to these interesting features, we find a large region of viable parameter space where the EFT is valid and the relic density can be reproduced, implying that WIMPs can still account for the DM of the universe while being consistent with the latest data.

We propose a novel method for computing $p$-values based on nested sampling (NS) applied to the sampling space rather than the parameter space of the problem, in contrast to its usage in Bayesian computation. The computational cost of NS scales as $\log^2{1/p}$, which compares favorably to the $1/p$ scaling for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. For significances greater than about $4\sigma$ in both a toy problem and a simplified resonance search, we show that NS requires orders of magnitude fewer simulations than ordinary MC estimates. This is particularly relevant for high-energy physics, which adopts a $5\sigma$ gold standard for discovery. We conclude with remarks on new connections between Bayesian and frequentist computation and possibilities for tuning NS implementations for still better performance in this setting.

We present the first cosmology results from large-scale structure in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) spanning 5000 deg$^2$. We perform an analysis combining three two-point correlation functions (3$\times$2pt): (i) cosmic shear using 100 million source galaxies, (ii) galaxy clustering, and (iii) the cross-correlation of source galaxy shear with lens galaxy positions. The analysis was designed to mitigate confirmation or observer bias; we describe specific changes made to the lens galaxy sample following unblinding of the results. We model the data within the flat $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM cosmological models. We find consistent cosmological results between the three two-point correlation functions; their combination yields clustering amplitude $S_8=0.776^{+0.017}_{-0.017}$ and matter density $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.339^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$ in $\Lambda$CDM, mean with 68% confidence limits; $S_8=0.775^{+0.026}_{-0.024}$, $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.352^{+0.035}_{-0.041}$, and dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w=-0.98^{+0.32}_{-0.20}$ in $w$CDM. This combination of DES data is consistent with the prediction of the model favored by the Planck 2018 cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary anisotropy data, which is quantified with a probability-to-exceed $p=0.13$ to $0.48$. When combining DES 3$\times$2pt data with available baryon acoustic oscillation, redshift-space distortion, and type Ia supernovae data, we find $p=0.34$. Combining all of these data sets with Planck CMB lensing yields joint parameter constraints of $S_8 = 0.812^{+0.008}_{-0.008}$, $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.306^{+0.004}_{-0.005}$, $h=0.680^{+0.004}_{-0.003}$, and $\sum m_{\nu}<0.13 \;\mathrm{eV\; (95\% \;CL)}$ in $\Lambda$CDM; $S_8 = 0.812^{+0.008}_{-0.008}$, $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.302^{+0.006}_{-0.006}$, $h=0.687^{+0.006}_{-0.007}$, and $w=-1.031^{+0.030}_{-0.027}$ in $w$CDM. (abridged)

This paper details the modeling pipeline and validates the baseline analysis choices of the DES Year 3 joint analysis of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (a so-called "3$\times$2pt" analysis). These analysis choices include the specific combination of cosmological probes, priors on cosmological and systematics parameters, model parameterizations for systematic effects and related approximations, and angular scales where the model assumptions are validated. We run a large number of simulated likelihood analyses using synthetic data vectors to test the robustness of our baseline analysis. We demonstrate that the DES Year 3 modeling pipeline, including the calibrated scale cuts, is sufficiently accurate relative to the constraining power of the DES Year 3 analyses. Our systematics mitigation strategy accounts for astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, source and lens magnification, baryonic effects, and source clustering, as well as for uncertainties in modeling the matter power spectrum, reduced shear, and estimator effects. We further demonstrate excellent agreement between two independently-developed modeling pipelines, and thus rule out any residual uncertainties due to the numerical implementation.

We present a validation of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) $3\times2$-point analysis choices by testing them on Buzzard v2.0, a new suite of cosmological simulations that is tailored for the testing and validation of combined galaxy clustering and weak lensing analyses. We show that the Buzzard v2.0 simulations accurately reproduce many important aspects of the DES Y3 data, including photometric redshift and magnitude distributions, and the relevant set of two-point clustering and weak lensing statistics. We then show that our model for the $3\times2$-point data vector is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys assuming the true redshift distributions for our source and lens samples, demonstrating robustness to uncertainties in the modeling of the non-linear matter power spectrum, non-linear galaxy bias and higher-order lensing corrections. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time that our photometric redshift calibration methodology, including information from photometry, spectroscopy, clustering cross-correlations, and galaxy-galaxy lensing ratios, is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys in the presence of realistic photometric redshift uncertainties.

Two of the most sensitive probes of the large scale structure of the universe are the clustering of galaxies and the tangential shear of background galaxy shapes produced by those foreground galaxies, so-called galaxy-galaxy lensing. Combining the measurements of these two two-point functions leads to cosmological constraints that are independent of the galaxy bias factor. The optimal choice of foreground, or lens, galaxies is governed by the joint, but conflicting requirements to obtain accurate redshift information and large statistics. We present cosmological results from the full 5000 sq. deg. of the Dark Energy Survey first three years of observations (Y3) combining those two-point functions, using for the first time a magnitude-limited lens sample (MagLim) of 11 million galaxies especially selected to optimize such combination, and 100 million background shapes. We consider two cosmological models, flat $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM. In $\Lambda$CDM we obtain for the matter density $\Omega_m = 0.320^{+0.041}_{-0.034}$ and for the clustering amplitude $S_8 = 0.778^{+0.037}_{-0.031}$, at 68\% C.L. The latter is only 1$\sigma$ smaller than the prediction in this model informed by measurements of the cosmic microwave background by the Planck satellite. In $w$CDM we find $\Omega_m = 0.32^{+0.044}_{-0.046}$, $S_8=0.777^{+0.049}_{-0.051}$, and dark energy equation of state $w=-1.031^{+0.218}_{-0.379}$. We find that including smaller scales while marginalizing over non-linear galaxy bias improves the constraining power in the $\Omega_m-S_8$ plane by $31\%$ and in the $\Omega_m-w$ plane by $41\%$ while yielding consistent cosmological parameters from those in the linear bias case. These results are combined with those from cosmic shear in a companion paper to present full DES-Y3 constraints from the three two-point functions (3x2pt).

We constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias parameters using the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year-3 data. We describe our modeling framework and choice of scales analyzed, validating their robustness to theoretical uncertainties in small-scale clustering by analyzing simulated data. Using a linear galaxy bias model and redMaGiC galaxy sample, we obtain constraints on the matter content of the universe to be $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.325^{+0.033}_{-0.034}$. We also implement a non-linear galaxy bias model to probe smaller scales that includes parameterizations based on hybrid perturbation theory, and find that it leads to a 17% gain in cosmological constraining power. Using the redMaGiC galaxy sample as foreground lens galaxies, we find the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements to exhibit significant signals akin to decorrelation between galaxies and mass on large scales, which is not expected in any current models. This likely systematic measurement error biases our constraints on galaxy bias and the $S_8$ parameter. We find that a scale-, redshift- and sky-area-independent phenomenological decorrelation parameter can effectively capture this inconsistency between the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. We perform robustness tests of our methodology pipeline and demonstrate stability of the constraints to changes in the theory model. After accounting for this decorrelation, we infer the constraints on the mean host halo mass of the redMaGiC galaxies from the large-scale bias constraints, finding the galaxies occupy halos of mass approximately $1.5 \times 10^{13} M_{\odot}/h$.

This work and its companion paper, Amon et al. (2021), present cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints from over 100 million source galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data. We constrain the lensing amplitude parameter $S_8\equiv\sigma_8\sqrt{\Omega_\textrm{m}/0.3}$ at the 3% level in $\Lambda$CDM: $S_8=0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}$ (68% CL). Our constraint is at the 2% level when using angular scale cuts that are optimized for the $\Lambda$CDM analysis: $S_8=0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017}$ (68% CL). With cosmic shear alone, we find no statistically significant constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at our present statistical power. We carry out our analysis blind, and compare our measurement with constraints from two other contemporary weak-lensing experiments: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) and Hyper-Suprime Camera Subaru Strategic Program (HSC). We additionally quantify the agreement between our data and external constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our DES Y3 result under the assumption of $\Lambda$CDM is found to be in statistical agreement with Planck 2018, although favors a lower $S_8$ than the CMB-inferred value by $2.3\sigma$ (a $p$-value of 0.02). This paper explores the robustness of these cosmic shear results to modeling of intrinsic alignments, the matter power spectrum and baryonic physics. We additionally explore the statistical preference of our data for intrinsic alignment models of different complexity. The fiducial cosmic shear model is tested using synthetic data, and we report no biases greater than 0.3$\sigma$ in the plane of $S_8\times\Omega_\textrm{m}$ caused by uncertainties in the theoretical models.

This work, together with its companion paper, Secco and Samuroff et al. (2021), presents the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints based on an analysis of over 100 million source galaxies. With the data spanning 4143 deg$^2$ on the sky, divided into four redshift bins, we produce the highest significance measurement of cosmic shear to date, with a signal-to-noise of 40. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $\Lambda$CDM model and find a 3% constraint of the clustering amplitude, $S_8\equiv \sigma_8 (\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}$. A $\Lambda$CDM-Optimized analysis, which safely includes smaller scale information, yields a 2% precision measurement of $S_8= 0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017}$ that is consistent with the fiducial case. The two low-redshift measurements are statistically consistent with the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background result, however, both recovered $S_8$ values are lower than the high-redshift prediction by $2.3\sigma$ and $2.1\sigma$ ($p$-values of 0.02 and 0.05), respectively. The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales and correlation functions. The analysis is demonstrated to be robust to calibration systematics, with the $S_8$ posterior consistent when varying the choice of redshift calibration sample, the modeling of redshift uncertainty and methodology. Similarly, we find that the corrections included to account for the blending of galaxies shifts our best-fit $S_8$ by $0.5\sigma$ without incurring a substantial increase in uncertainty. We examine the limiting factors for the precision of the cosmological constraints and find observational systematics to be subdominant to the modeling of astrophysics. Specifically, we identify the uncertainties in modeling baryonic effects and intrinsic alignments as the limiting systematics.