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The Oxygen Valve on Hydrogen Escape Since the Great Oxidation Event

The Great Oxidation Event (GOE) was a 200 Myr transition circa 2.4 billion years ago that converted the Earth’s anoxic atmosphere to one where molecular oxygen (O2) was abundant. This rise in O2 is thought to have substantially throttled hydrogen (H) escape and the associated water (H2O) loss. In this study we use WACCM6 , a three-dimensional Earth System Model to simulate Earth’s atmosphere and predict the diffusion-limited escape rate of hydrogen due to varying O2 concentrations based on atmospheric estimations from the GOE onward, ranging between 0.1 PAL to 150 PAL , where PAL is the present atmospheric level of 21 % by volume. O2 indirectly acts as a control valve on the amount of hydrogen atoms reaching the homopause in the simulations: less O2 leads to decreased O3 densities, reducing local temperatures by up to 5 K, which increases H2O freeze-drying. For the considered scenarios, the maximum difference in the total H mixing ratio at the homopause and calculated diffusion-limited escape rates is a factor of 3.2 and 4.7, respectively, with the prescribed CH4 mixing ratio setting a minimum diffusion escape rate of ≈ 2 × 10^10 mol H/yr. These numerical predictions support geological evidence that the majority of Earth’s hydrogen escape occurred prior to the GOE .

• Speaker: Greg Cooke / IoA
• Tuesday 06 May 2025, 13:15-13:40
• Venue: The Hoyle Lecture Theatre + Zoom .
• Series: Institute of Astronomy Seminars; organiser: .

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arXiv:2409.20379v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A precise measurement of photometric redshifts (photo-z) is key for the success of modern photometric galaxy surveys. Machine learning (ML) methods show great promise in this context, but suffer from covariate shift (CS) in training sets due to selection bias where interesting sources are underrepresented, and the corresponding ML models show poor generalisation properties. We present an application of the StratLearn method to the estimation of photo-z, validating against simulations where we enforce the presence of CS to different degrees. StratLearn is a statistically principled approach that relies on splitting the source and target datasets into strata based on estimated propensity scores (i.e. the probability for an object to be in the source set given its observed covariates). After stratification, two conditional density estimators are fit separately to each stratum, then combined via a weighted average. We benchmark our results against the GPz algorithm, quantifying the performance of the two codes with a set of metrics. Our results show that the StratLearn-z metrics are only marginally affected by the presence of CS, while GPz shows a significant degradation of performance in the photo-z prediction for fainter objects. For the strongest CS scenario, StratLearn-z yields a reduced fraction of catastrophic errors, a factor of 2 improvement for the RMSE and one order of magnitude improvement on the bias. We also assess the quality of the conditional redshift estimates with the probability integral transform (PIT). The PIT distribution obtained from StratLearn-z features fat fewer outliers and is symmetric, i.e. the predictions appear to be centered around the true redshift value, despite showing a conservative estimation of the spread of the conditional redshift distributions. Our julia implementation of the method is available at https://github.com/chiaramoretti/StratLearn-z.

arXiv:2504.21087v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Einstein Telescope (ET), along with other third-generation gravitational wave (GW) detectors, will be a key instrument for detecting GWs in the coming decades. However, analyzing the data and estimating source parameters will be challenging, especially given the large number of expected detections - of order $10^5$ per year - which makes current methods based on stochastic sampling impractical. In this work, we use Dingo-IS to perform Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) of high-redshift events detectable with ET in its triangular configuration. NPE is a likelihood-free inference technique that leverages normalizing flows to approximate posterior distributions. After training, inference is fast, requiring only a few minutes per source, and accurate, as corrected through importance sampling and validated against standard Bayesian inference methods. To confirm previous findings on the ability to estimate parameters for high-redshift sources with ET, we compare NPE results with predictions from the Fisher information matrix (FIM) approximation. We find that FIM underestimates sky localization errors substantially for most sources, as it does not capture the multimodalities in sky localization introduced by the geometry of the triangular detector. FIM also overestimates the uncertainty in luminosity distance by a factor of $\sim 3$ on average when the injected luminosity distance is $d^{\mathrm{inj}}_{\mathrm{L}} > 10^5~$Mpc, further confirming that ET will be particularly well suited for studying the early Universe.

Love Bites: The Deadly Romance of Spider Pulsars

Pulsars in binary systems are fantastic physics laboratories, primarily because their orbital dynamics allow us to probe binary evolution, test gravity theories, measure neutron star masses, etc. Among them are the “black widows” and “redbacks”, which are nicknamed after the deadly arachnids because the millisecond pulsar they contain gradually destroys their low mass companion. The strongly irradiated dayside displayed by the low-mass companions in these systems is reminiscent of what is observed in exoplanets called “hot jupiters”. In the last decade, the number of known spiders has grown exponentially to the point of becoming the most prevalent type of fast rotating binary pulsars. In this talk, I will present some of the recent efforts undertaken with the MeerKAT telescope to uncover these pulsars and review some of the key advances they have provided for our understanding of binary evolution, stellar physics under extreme irradiation, and measurement of neutron star masses.

• Speaker: Prof. Rene Breton (University of Manchester)
• Tuesday 17 June 2025, 11:15-12:00
• Venue: Martin Ryle Seminar Room, Kavli Institute.
• Series: Hills Coffee Talks; organiser: Charles Walker.

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Well-posed initial value formulation of general effective field theories of gravity

In this talk, I will show that all higher-derivative effective field theories (EFTs) of vacuum gravity admit a well-posed initial value formulation when augmented by suitable regularising terms. These regularising terms can be obtained by field redefinitions and do not affect the dynamics in the regime of validity of EFT . I will explain how our result applies to the quadratic, cubic, and quartic truncations of the EFT of gravity and to various truncations of a simple EFT of a scalar field. Finally, I will also discuss some numerical results on the non-linear dynamics of this simple scalar field theory.

• Speaker: Aron Kovacs, Queen Mary University of London
• Friday 20 June 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: Potter room/Zoom.
• Series: DAMTP Friday GR Seminar; organiser: Daniela Cors.

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arXiv:2504.20144v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We report the existence of two exotic compact objects in the leading relativistic model of modified Newtonian dynamics, namely aether-scalar-tensor theory. This model is consistent with precision cosmology and gravitational wave constraints on tensor speed. Black hole mimickers could subtly change observations: gravitational waves from their mergers might show unusual echoes or altered ringdown patterns, and images of their horizon-scale shadows might be slightly different from those of a true black hole. Shapiro-free lenses are massless objects that deflect light without any gravitational time delay, producing distinctive lensing events. These predictions connect to ongoing and future gravitational-wave searches, horizon-scale imaging, and time-domain lensing surveys.

arXiv:2503.17342v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present an updated reconstruction of the dark energy equation of state, $w(a)$, using the newly released DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data in combination with Pantheon+ and DES5Y Type Ia supernovae measurements, respectively. Building on our previous analysis in arXiv:2503.08658, which employed a nonparametric flexknot reconstruction approach, we examine whether the evidence for dynamical dark energy persists with the improved precision of the DESI DR2 dataset. We find that while the overall qualitative structure of $w(a)$ remains consistent with our earlier findings, the statistical support for dynamical dark energy is reduced when considering DESI DR2 data alone, particularly for more complex flexknot models with higher numbers of knots. However, the evidence for simpler dynamical models, such as $w$CDM and CPL (which correspond to $n=1$ and $n=2$ knots respectively), increases relative to $\Lambda$CDM with DESI DR2 alone, with CPL being the preferred dynamical model, consistent with previous DESI analyses. When combined with Pantheon+ data, the conclusions remain broadly consistent with our earlier work, but when instead combined with DES5Y supernovae data, there is an increased preference for flexknot models for all values of $n$ considered. This results in all such models being preferred over $\Lambda$CDM, with the CPL model being the most favoured by a Bayes factor of $\sim 2.3$ relative to $\Lambda$CDM.

arXiv:2504.20992v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We analyse the large-scale angular clustering of quasars in the Gaia-unWISE quasar catalog, Quaia, and their cross-correlation with maps of the lensing convergence of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), to constrain the level of primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG). Specifically, we target the scale-dependent bias that would be induced by PNG on biased tracers of the matter inhomogeneities on large scales. The Quaia sample is particularly well suited for this analysis, given the large effective volume covered, and our ability to map out the main potential sources of systematic contamination and mitigate their impact. Using the universality relation to characterise the response of the quasar overdensity to PNG ($p_\phi=1$), we report constraints on the local-type PNG parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ of $f_{\rm NL}=-20.5^{+19.0}_{-18.1}$ (68\% C.L.) by combining the quasar auto-correlation and its cross-correlation with CMB lensing in two tomographic redshift bins (or $f_{\rm NL}=-28.7^{+26.1}_{-24.6}$ if assuming a lower response for quasars, $p_\phi=1.6$). Using the CMB lensing cross-correlations alone, we find $f_{\rm NL}=-13.8^{+26.7}_{-25.0}$. These are the tightest constraints on $f_{\rm NL}$ to date from angular clustering statistics and cross-correlations with CMB lensing.

The Dynamic Chemistry of Planet-Forming Disks

The chemical composition of a planet’s atmosphere is intimately tied to the volatile inventory of the protoplanetary disk in which it forms. Establishing this connection requires detailed measurements of elemental abundances in disks at small spatial scales relevant to planet formation. In this talk, I will present two targeted studies of well-known Herbig Ae/Be systems, combining ALMA observations with chemical modelling to probe disk chemistry. In HD 100546 , we detect complex molecular asymmetries, interpreted as the result of shadowing from planet-induced structures within the inner cavity, generating azimuthal temperature variations that drive chemical diversity. In HD 169142 , we investigate the first detection of SiS emission from a protoplanetary disk—nearly a billion times brighter than predicted under typical conditions—indicative of planet-induced shocks that release silicon from dust grains into the gas phase. These findings reveal that planet formation can significantly reshape the chemical environment of disks, with direct implications for how emerging planets accrete their atmospheres. Together, these studies emphasise the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of disk chemistry and provide new insights into the origins of the wide diversity observed in exoplanetary atmospheres.

• Speaker: Luke Keyte (UCL)
• Tuesday 06 May 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: Ryle seminar room + ONLINE - Details to be sent by email.
• Series: Exoplanet Seminars; organiser: Dr Dolev Bashi.

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Updates on fundamental science from the secondary CMB

A major frontier in cosmic microwave background (CMB) science is the study of secondary anisotropies—temperature and polarization anisotropies induced by the gravitational, electromagnetic, or beyond-standard-model (BSM) interactions of CMB photons with large-scale structure (LSS) over cosmic history. Leveraging their distinct statistical properties and cross-correlations with LSS enables us to isolate these secondary anisotropies from the primary CMB and extract new astrophysical and cosmological information. In this talk, I discuss how secondary anisotropies from electromagnetic interactions (Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effects) and hypothetical BSM particles (dark screening) can serve as probes of fundamental physics. I present a general formalism for capturing the information content of secondary anisotropies. I then give a summary of existing measurements of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ), polarized Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (pSZ), and dark screening effects. Next I provide an update on how these measurements constrain large-scale homogeneity, primordial non-Gaussianity, isocurvature, and BSM particles (axions and dark photons). Looking ahead to the high-resolution, low-noise, large-volume frontier, I discuss how upcoming observations from the Simons Observatory, combined with LSS surveys like DESI and LSST , will significantly improve these results and allow for novel tests of fundamental physics.

• Speaker: Matthew Johnson (Perimeter Institute and York University)
• Tuesday 06 May 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: CMS, Pav. B, CTC Common Room (B1.19) [Potter Room].
• Series: Cosmology Lunch; organiser: Thomas Colas.

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Title to be confirmed

Abstract not available

• Speaker: Ortwin Gerhard, MPE (Garching)
• Thursday 15 May 2025, 16:00-17:00
• Venue: Hoyle Lecture Theatre, Institute of Astronomy.
• Series: Institute of Astronomy Colloquia; organiser: .

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Gravitational Wave Signatures of Dark Matter in Neutron Star Mergers

Binary neutron star mergers provide insights into strong-field gravity and the properties of ultra-dense nuclear matter. These events offer the potential to search for signatures of physics beyond the standard model, including dark matter. We present the first numerical-relativity simulations of binary neutron star mergers admixed with dark matter, based on constraint-solved initial data. Modeling dark matter as a non-interacting fermionic gas, we investigate the impact of varying dark matter fractions and particle masses on the merger dynamics, ejecta mass, post-merger remnant properties, and the emitted gravitational waves. Our simulations suggest that the dark matter morphology – a dense core or a diluted halo – may alter the merger outcome. Scenarios with a dark matter core tend to exhibit a higher probability of prompt collapse, while those with a dark matter halo develop a common envelope, embedding the whole binary. Furthermore, gravitational wave signals from mergers with dark matter halo configurations exhibit significant deviations from standard models when the tidal deformability is calculated in a two-fluid framework neglecting the dilute and extended nature of the halo. This highlights the need for refined models in calculating the tidal deformability when considering mergers with extended dark matter structures. These initial results provide a basis for further exploration of dark matter’s role in binary neutron star mergers and their associated gravitational wave emission and can serve as a benchmark for future observations from advanced detectors and multi-messenger astrophysics.

• Speaker: Violetta Sagun, University of Southampton
• Friday 30 May 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: MR9/Zoom.
• Series: DAMTP Friday GR Seminar; organiser: Xi Tong.

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TBC

Abstract not available

• Speaker: Benjamin Elder, Imperial College London
• Friday 16 May 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: MR20/Zoom.
• Series: DAMTP Friday GR Seminar; organiser: Xi Tong.

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TBC

Abstract not available

• Speaker: Robbie Hennigar, Durham University
• Friday 09 May 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: MR9/Zoom.
• Series: DAMTP Friday GR Seminar; organiser: Xi Tong.

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A Spacetime Interpretation of the Confluent Heun Functions in Black Hole Perturbation Theory

In Black Hole Perturbation Theory, confluent Heun functions appear as solutions to the radial Teukolsky equation, which governs perturbations in black hole spacetimes. While these functions are typically studied for their analytic properties, their connection to the underlying spacetime geometry has received less attention. In this talk, I will propose a spacetime interpretation of the confluent Heun functions, demonstrating how their behaviour near their singular points reflects the structure of key surfaces in Kerr spacetimes. By interpreting homotopic transformations of these functions as changes in the spacetime foliation, I will establish a connection between these solutions and various regions of the black hole’s global structure. I will also explore their relationship with the hyperboloidal formulation of the radial Teukolsky equation.

• Speaker: Marica Minucci, Bohr Inst., Copenhagen
• Friday 06 June 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: Potter room/Zoom.
• Series: DAMTP Friday GR Seminar; organiser: Xi Tong.

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arXiv:2504.20038v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and \textit{Planck}. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing bandpowers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of $A_\mathrm{lens}^\mathrm{recon} = 1.025 \pm 0.017$ with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB \textit{Planck}-ACT cosmology. The bandpowers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a $1.6\%$ measurement of the parameter combination $S_8^\mathrm{CMBL} \equiv \sigma_8\,(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.25} = 0.825^{+0.015}_{-0.013}$. Including Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to $\sigma_8 = 0.829 \pm 0.009$ (a $1.1\%$ determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from \texttt{Pantheon+}, we present a $4\%$ sound-horizon-independent estimate of $H_0=66.4\pm2.5\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}} $. The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a $\Lambda$CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from \textit{Planck} and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the $\Lambda\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

arXiv:2412.05363v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent observations by JWST have revealed supersolar $^{14}$N abundances in galaxies at very high redshift. On the other hand, these galaxies show subsolar metallicity. The observed N/O ratios are difficult to reproduce in the framework of chemical evolution models for the Milky Way. Our aim is to reproduce these high N/O ratios with chemical evolution models assuming different histories of star formation triggering galactic winds coupled with detailed nucleosynthesis prescriptions for $^{14}$N, $^{12}$C, $^{16}$O and $^{56}$Fe. We compute several models for small galaxies ($10^{9}\text{ - }10^{10}\text{ M}_{\odot}$) with high star formation efficiency and strong galactic winds. These winds are assumed to be differential, carrying out mainly the products of the explosion of core-collapse supernovae. We find that only models with high star formation rates, normal initial mass function, and differential galactic winds can reproduce the observed chemical abundances. We also find that with the same assumptions about star formation and galactic winds, but with a very rapid formation resulting from fast gas infall, we can also reproduce the estimated ages of these objects. We find no necessity to invoke peculiar nucleosynthesis from Population III stars, very massive stars and supermassive stars.

arXiv:2504.18637v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect is a window into the astrophysical processes of galaxy clusters, and relativistic corrections (the "rSZ") promise to provide a global census of the gas feedback within clusters. Upcoming wide-field millimeter-wave surveys such as the Simons Observatory (SO), Fred Young Submillimeter Telescope, and CMB-S4 will make increasingly precise measurements of the SZ effect and its relativistic corrections. We present simulated full-sky maps of the rSZ effect and a fast code to generate it, for use in the development of analysis techniques and pipelines. As part of the websky simulation suite, our mock observations have semi-realistic cross-correlations with other large-scale structure tracers, offering insights into the formation and evolution of galaxy clusters and large-scale structure. As a demonstration of this, we examine what an SO-like experiment can learn from the rSZ effect. We find that high significance detections will be possible, provided that the instrumental systematics are under control, and that the evolution of cluster temperatures with mass and redshift can be probed in a manner complementary to X-ray measurements.

Neutrinos have always been hard to explain – and now the detection of one so energetic it shouldn't exist may help illuminate the strangest corners of the cosmos

Gravitational Wave Signatures of Dark Matter in Neutron Star Mergers

Binary neutron star mergers provide insights into strong-field gravity and the properties of ultra-dense nuclear matter. These events offer the potential to search for signatures of physics beyond the standard model, including dark matter. We present the first numerical-relativity simulations of binary neutron star mergers admixed with dark matter, based on constraint-solved initial data. Modeling dark matter as a non-interacting fermionic gas, we investigate the impact of varying dark matter fractions and particle masses on the merger dynamics, ejecta mass, post-merger remnant properties, and the emitted gravitational waves. Our simulations suggest that the dark matter morphology – a dense core or a diluted halo – may alter the merger outcome. Scenarios with a dark matter core tend to exhibit a higher probability of prompt collapse, while those with a dark matter halo develop a common envelope, embedding the whole binary. Furthermore, gravitational wave signals from mergers with dark matter halo configurations exhibit significant deviations from standard models when the tidal deformability is calculated in a two-fluid framework neglecting the dilute and extended nature of the halo. This highlights the need for refined models in calculating the tidal deformability when considering mergers with extended dark matter structures. These initial results provide a basis for further exploration of dark matter’s role in binary neutron star mergers and their associated gravitational wave emission and can serve as a benchmark for future observations from advanced detectors and multi-messenger astrophysics.

• Speaker: Violetta Sagun, University of Southampton
• Friday 30 May 2025, 13:00-14:00
• Venue: Potter room/Zoom.
• Series: DAMTP Friday GR Seminar; organiser: Xi Tong.

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